Widya Climago

INFLUENCE The Influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the frequency of tropical cyclones in Indonesia during the Western Monsoon Period

2024-11-07T10:05:55+00:00

Tropical cyclones have occurred frequently in the Indonesian region and its vicinity, where these tropical cyclones have significant impacts on the atmospheric conditions in the traversed areas. Tropical cyclones have occurred prominently in the Indonesian region, especially during the western monsoon period. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are factors that modulate tropical cyclones. Not all tropical cyclones occurring during the western monsoon period are accompanied by the same ENSO and MJO periods. Therefore, this study aims to determine the extent to which the presence of ENSO and MJO influences the existence of tropical cyclones during the western monsoon period in the Indonesian region. Based on tropical cyclone data from 1989 to 2018, there have been a total of 363 tropical cyclone occurrences within the research boundaries of 900 E to 1600 E and 200 N to 200 S. Of these, 169 events occurred in the southern hemisphere (SH) and 194 events in the northern hemisphere (NH). The grouping of tropical cyclones was conducted as a method to understand the extent of tropical cyclone existence influenced by the presence of ENSO and MJO during their occurrence. The results of this study indicate that tropical cyclones in the NH region of Indonesia are more likely to occur during ENSO periods (El Niño and La Niña) when MJO is concurrently active, compared to periods when ENSO occurs without active MJO. In contrast, in the SH region of Indonesia, tropical cyclones are more dominant when La Niña phenomena coincide with each MJO period compared to periods when El Niño coincides with each MJO period.

THE INFLUENCE OF INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WIND PATTERNS AT DEPATI AMIR AIRPORT PANGKALPINANG

2025-04-30T02:27:51+00:00

The results of the NTSC investigation say that some of the factors that influence aviation accidents are human, technical, environmental, and facility factors. Surface wind conditions on the runway are one of the critical meteorological aspects for flight safety. This study aims to understand the surface wind distribution pattern during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase and reduce the potential for aircraft accidents at Depati Amir Airport - Pangkalpinang. IOD itself is a weather phenomenon in the Indian Ocean that affects weather conditions in the surrounding area. The results of research conducted using the windrose method with surface wind data from 2011 to 2020 show that each phase of the IOD has a different impact on the distribution of wind patterns at Depati Amir Airport. Positive IOD tends to cause an increase in the percentage of wind speed up to 13.7% of the mean even though the dominant wind direction tends to be the same as the mean. Neutral IOD tends to cause a decrease in the percentage of wind speed from the mean even though the dominant wind direction tends to have a similar pattern to the mean. Meanwhile, Negative IOD causes a shift in the dominant wind direction at Depati Amir Airport by 45o - 90o counterclockwise from the mean. In addition, the Negative IOD also caused a decrease in the percentage of wind speed in all wind speed categories up to 32.7%.

DAMPAK PERUBAHAN IKLIM TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS PADI DI PULAU JAWA DI MASA MENDATANG

2024-11-07T07:02:06+00:00

Using the climate projection data from the ensemble model output from the CORDEX-SEA (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South East Asia) grid-based (25 km x 25 km) project in Java (205 grids), a simulation of growth and production of rice was carried out using the AquaCrop FAO model (AquaCrop64bit version 5.0). The climate projection data is an ensemble of 6 models: CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-MK3.6, EC-EARTH, GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL and MPI-ESM-MR consisting of a 30-year period data: historical data for the period 1976-2005, RCP4.5 scenario for the 2020-2049 period and RCP8.5 scenario data for the 2020-2049 period in the form of daily rainfall data, maximum temperature, average temperature and minimum temperature. AquaCrop simulation uses climate and soil texture data variables with irrigation sources from rainwater. This study aims to determine the impact of climate change on rice productivity in Java as the changes in rice productivity in Java in the near future period (2020-2049) against the historical period (1976-2005) using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the months of rainy season, dry season and transition seasons.. Climate change has an impact on increasing rice productivity 0-30% in the rainy season months throughout Java and in the dry season months it has an impact on reducing rice productivity 60-90% with a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) in rice production centers in coastal areas north of West Java, middle Java and the center of rice production in East Java. This condition can threaten national food security in the future.

CORRELATION TEST OF RASON INDEX PARAMETERS ON THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN THE TANIMBAR ISLANDS

2024-11-07T10:09:45+00:00

Several meteorological practitioners have utilized machine learning techniques to forecast adverse weather conditions, particularly lightning occurrences. Upper air data, obtained through radiosonde measurements, is frequently employed to train machine learning models due to its ability to capture atmospheric instability. Despite its common usage, radiosonde-based lightning predictions typically have a validity window of 6-12 hours. However, cumulonimbus cloud formation in tropical regions, the primary source of lightning, typically lasts between 30 minutes to 1-2 hours per phase, casting doubt on the efficacy of radiosonde data for longer-term predictions. Furthermore, variations in local atmospheric patterns result in non-uniform utilization of radiosonde index parameters across different regions. Understanding the relationship between these parameters and lightning events is crucial for atmospheric thermodynamic analysis and region-specific prediction model development. This study examines the correlation between radiosonde index parameters in the Tanimbar Islands and lightning events from cumulonimbus clouds, utilizing indices such as KI, LI, SI, TT, CAPE, and CIN. Results suggest that index sustainability does not consistently correlate with lightning formation, with differing validity periods observed for 3 and 6 hours ahead. The reason index parameters in the form of SI, KI, and TT are only valid for predicting 3 hours ahead during the months of March-April-May, while only KI maintains validity for both 3 and 6 hours ahead at certain times.

Persepsi Peserta terhadap Penggunaan Media Kahoot Sebagai Penutup Pembelajaran, Studi Kasus: Mata Pelatihan Akuntabilitas Latsar CPNS Golongan III Tahun 2020

2021-05-18T01:16:05+00:00

The use of media tools in the learning process needs to be done in an effort to measure the learning achievements of the training participants. Kahoot as a popular application can be used to support the learning process, one of which is a closing lesson. A review of learning using the Kahoot in the course of the 2020 Pelatihan Dasar CPNS in Accountability Material has been carried out. The results show that in general participants are helped in getting an overview of learning (97% of participants), increasing enthusiasm and motivation to learn (98%), and stimulating curiosity. Regarding the material (96%), respondents also stated that they were happy to use kahoot (> 80%), as many as 98% of respondents had the perception that Kahoot played a role in fostering critical thinking skills, thinking skills and making quick decisions.